Understanding Vegetation Greening in the Mu Us and Thar Deserts: The Role of Climate Change and Human Interventions

Understanding the drivers of vegetation dynamics in arid and semi-arid regions is critical for achieving sustainable land management, ecological restoration, and climate resilience. Vegetation dynamics influence key ecosystem processes, including energy balance, carbon sequestration, soil stabilization, and water regulation, making them pivotal for the health of terrestrial systems. In recent decades, these fragile environments have experienced rapid changes driven by both anthropogenic interventions and climate variability. This study aims to separate and evaluate the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation changes in two major dryland ecosystems: China's Mu Us Desert and Pakistan's Thar Desert. Using MODIS NDVI satellite data from 2001 to 2023, we analyzed spatiotemporal trends in vegetation activity. Statistical approaches, including the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator, were applied to quantify trends, while Pearson correlation and threshold segmentation distinguished the impacts of climate variability, multi-controls, and restoration efforts. Unlike earlier work, this study separately quantifies these drivers to differentiate their roles in vegetation greening. Our results reveal significant vegetation greening across 82.40% of the Mu Us Desert and 67.40% of the Thar Desert, with only minor areas experiencing degradation (0.34% and 1.55%, respectively). Restoration programs, combined with favorable climatic conditions, contributed to notable increases in vegetation cover, with gains of up to 45.95% in barren lands and 46.38% in croplands. Despite these positive trends, vulnerable regions within the Thar Desert, especially highly degraded rainfed zones, require further targeted restoration to enhance ecosystem resilience and mitigate desertification risks. This research highlights the crucial relationship between climatic drivers and human interventions in shaping dryland vegetation patterns. By focusing on the understudied Thar Desert, the study offers new insights for policymakers and land managers to develop adaptive strategies that combat land degradation and support sustainable development goals in arid regions worldwide.Graphical AbstractThis graphical abstract illustrates the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation in two major dryland ecosystems: China's Mu Us Desert and Pakistan's Thar Desert, from 2001 to 2023. Using MODIS NDVI satellite data, the study reveals significant greening across both regions, which is influenced by climate variability and ecological restoration initiatives. In the Mu Us Desert, 82.4% of the area experienced an increase in vegetation, with 46.05% attributed to restoration programs and 34.69% to the combined effects of climate and human influences. In the Thar Desert, 67.4% of the land showed vegetation gains, mainly due to multi-control drivers (31.16%) and restoration efforts (23.21%). The visual highlights areas of vegetation improvement, degradation, and their driving forces, clearly separating climate-driven changes from human interventions. Validation regions confirm that vegetation restoration occurred in areas where ecological programs were applied. This summary highlights how targeted restoration and favorable climatic conditions can effectively reverse desertification and support land recovery in vulnerable arid environments.