Analysis of spatio-temporal dynamics of meteorological and agricultural drought indices in the Haouz plain, semi-arid region of Morocco (1984-2023)

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  • Morocco, located in the extreme northwest of Africa, is increasingly vulnerable to drought due to its predominantly arid to semi-arid climate, with water demand far exceeding supply, particularly in the Haouz plain. An analysis based on climatic indices, using data sampled at five-year between 1984 and 2023, reveals a gradual intensification of drought over the past few decades, especially pronounced since 2019. Correlations between vegetation stress indices (VCI, VHI, NDVI), thermal stress (TCI), and climate-based indicators, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Actual Evapotranspiration (AET), highlight two distinct periods: 1984-1999, characterized by predominantly wet years, and 2000-2023, marked by persistent drought condition. Validation of these conclusions during the same period is based on the calculation of precipitation anomalies relative to the historical norm, expressed through the Precipitation Normalized Index (PNI), This index obtained from land surveys provided by the Tensift Hydraulic Basin Agency and was further supported by analysis of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) using TerraClimate data.This two-source approach enabled a detailed comparison between both datasets, revealing that during the second study period, only nine wet years were recorded, with a historic precipitation minimum in 2023 and a maximum observed in 2018. These findings were further supported by a Mann-Kendall trend analysis, which revealed significant downward trends in both PDSI and TCI over the study period.