This study assesses the economic viability of sustainable forest management plans (SFMPs) for fuelwood production in a semi-arid region of Brazil through a probabilistic assessment, offering insights for financially viable and environmentally sustainable production. Data from operational SFMPs in Pernambuco were used to parameterize the analysis. Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Uniform Annual Equivalent Value (UAEV), and Discounted Payback were used as feasibility criteria. After the deterministic analysis, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the riskiest variables, followed by a Monte Carlo simulation to quantify associated risks and uncertainties. The deterministic results showed an average NPV of R$527,101.28 and an IRR of 36.56% in a scenario considering land costs. The average probability of viability was 78.43% and 84.65% for the scenarios with and without land costs. Large properties showed higher returns and a payback period of only two years, highlighting economies of scale. The price of firewood was identified as a critical variable for the attractiveness of the projects. These findings offer concrete support for producers and policymakers, highlighting opportunities to strengthen the regional economy and sustainably expand the use of firewood for energy.