Mishra, Deepak , Kumar, Nakka Naveen , Singh, Shekhar , Goyal, Manish Kumar
2026-04-01 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT REVIEW 2026 118(卷), null(期), (null页)
Wetlands are critical ecosystems sustaining ecological balance, climate regulation, water purification, and biodiversity, yet climate-induced precipitation extremes pose growing threats to their hydrological stability worldwide. This study investigates hydroclimatic regime shifts across 2490 Ramsar wetlands using a climateinformed framework integrating precipitation variability and extremes, assessed through a multi-model ensemble of 13 CMIP6 models for historical (1951-2024) and SSP585 future (2025-2100) periods. In arid regions, annual precipitation increased 9.3 % (337.3 to 368.7 mm) while Ramsar wetlands expanded 14.5 % (447 to 512 sites), reflecting spatial growth under evolving hydroclimatic regimes. Despite remaining driest, arid wetlands exhibit heightened hydrological stress with RR95 frequency rising 16.36 %, R95pTOT contributions increasing 7.74 % (11.21 % to 12.08 %), SDII rising 9.5 % (2.1 to 2.3 mm/day), and Rx1 climbing 11.9 % (12.6 to 14.1 mm), indicating greater event-scale intensity. Across all climate zones, wetland-year records exceeding extreme rainfall thresholds increased significantly, reaching 95 % for R95pTOT in temperate zones and over 80 % in arid regions, demonstrating a global shift toward clustered, intense precipitation events. The expansion of arid zone wetlands coupled with increasing extremes creates a paradoxical risk where short, intense water bursts undermine ecosystem resilience, intensify flash flooding, and disrupt fragile wetland hydrology. These findings underscore urgent needs for climate-resilient wetland management policies tailored to arid and vulnerable regions, with targeted adaptation strategies including early warning systems, sustainable land use, and naturebased solutions essential for preserving wetland integrity aligned with SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 14 (Life Below Water).