Probabilistic analysis of water yield for the watershed controlled by check dams in the Yellow River's Crooked Bend Area, considering complementary of wind and solar resources

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  • In arid and semi-arid regions, where water scarcity and fragile ecosystems are critical challenges, the sustainable use of wind and solar energy resources is vital for regional water management and ecological resilience. This study, focusing on the Yellow River's Crooked Bend Area, analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of wind and solar resources (1965-2019) using radiation and wind energy density models. The wind-solar complementarity rate was quantified across multiple scales, and its impact on watershed water yield availability in check dam-controlled areas was assessed constructing conditional probability and linear regression models. Key drivers of wind-solar complementarity rate and factors influencing water yield dynamic risks were identified through geographic detector analysis. The results reveals that the Yellow River's Crooked Bend Area exhibits significant spatiotemporal variation in renewable resources, with mean annual solar radiation of 66,937.65 Wm(-2) and wind energy density of 6,191.59 Wm(-2) (p < 0.05). Wind energy is consistently lower than solar radiation across multiple time scales, and the area experiencing a significant decline in wind energy far exceeds that of solar radiation (p < 0.05). The wind-solar complementarity rate, ranging from 0.08 to 0.24 with a mean of 0.17, shows a declining trend, indicating long-term impacts of climate change. Water yield demonstrates nonlinear sensitivity to wind-solar complementarity rate with a threshold, particularly in low-yield regions such as Yan'an area, Ordos eastern area, and Yulin area. Geographic detector analysis identifies cloud cover (q = 0.71), NDVI (q = 0.59), temperature difference (q = 0.44), relative landscape deviation (q = 0.41), and vapor pressure (q = 0.40) as primary factors driving spatial variability of the wind-solar complementarity rate across the entire region on the mean annual scale, while sliding window analysis highlights the roles of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and temperature difference in influencing risk between water yield and wind-solar complementarity rate. Conditional return period analysis shows that possibility of higher water yields is decreasing, while increasing the complementarity reduces return periods and enhances resilience. These findings provide a risk assessment framework for integrating wind and solar energy with water resources, offering scientific support for ecological conservation and sustainable development in the Yellow River bend region.