Understanding the effects of climate change on plant species distribution is critical, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions that are highly susceptible to desertification. Such insights are essential for the sustainable management and conservation of rangelands. This study employed species distribution models to predict the habitat suitability of Stipa arabica (feather grass) in Yazd Province, Iran. Statistical analyses were conducted using R software, incorporating climate change projections. Climatic trends were assessed using the Mann-Kendall test, and a potential distribution map was developed through logistic regression. High-resolution bioclimatic maps (4.9 km) were generated for current conditions, integrating 19 bioclimatic variables and three physiographic factors. Future projections for 2050 were modeled under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) using the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model (MRI-ESM2-0). Presence-absence data and environmental variables collected from field sampling sites were analyzed to determine the relationship between species distribution and environmental factors. The results revealed a significant decline in the probability of S. arabica occurrence by 2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario, accompanied by a substantial increase in temperature across all study sites. A warming trend was evident in Yazd Province, with over 75% of meteorological stations reporting a significant rise in annual temperatures. The findings suggest that rising temperatures and declining precipitation will exacerbate water stress in plants by increasing evaporation and transpiration rates. Additionally, reduced precipitation and accelerated snowmelt in mountainous regions are likely to further diminish water availability, posing serious challenges for water storage and ecosystem sustainability in the region.