Surface water scarcity is a critical concern in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly in Rajasthan, India, where over 60% of the area faces chronic water stress. This study assesses 38 years (1984-2021) of surface water dynamics across 49 districts using high-resolution satellite data to identify hydrological disparities and inform district-level planning. The research addresses a significant gap in quantifying long-term changes in both seasonal and permanent surface water availability, normalized by population to estimate per capita access. We used the JRC Global Surface Water Mapping Layer derived from Landsat imagery to extract indicators such as water occurrence, absolute change, per capita seasonal and permanent water availability. A clustering approach using KMeans and Silhouette Score analysis was implemented to group hydrologically similar districts. In addition, we developed a surface water depletion index and increment index to identify districts with the greatest water loss and gain, respectively. A log-scaled seasonal-to-permanent per capita water ratio was used to assess hydrological imbalance. Results reveal stark spatial variation in surface water distribution. Chittorgarh and Tonk (Cluster 3) showed the highest availability indices (> 0.6), supported by perennial reservoirs and rainwater harvesting structures. In contrast, districts like Sri Ganganagar and Hanumangarh exhibited surface water depletion indices of 0.85 and 0.72. Conversely, Tonk and Jhalawar showed increment indices of 1.05 and 0.95, reflecting successful watershed interventions. Per capita permanent water availability ranged from < 50 m(2) in urban districts like Jaipur to > 1200 m(2) in low-density districts such as Jaisalmer. This district-level analysis provides a first-of-its-kind water vulnerability mapping for Rajasthan, enabling cluster-specific planning and targeted policy interventions. The findings support national initiatives such as Jal Shakti Abhiyan and contribute to the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) and SDG 13 (Climate Action).
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