Sarab, Sajad Alimahmoodi , Zilaie, Mahmood Najafi , Dinarvand, Mehri , Arami, Seyed Hossein
2026-02-01 FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT 2026 601(卷), null(期), (null页)
Due to limited forest cover and a heavy reliance on timber imports, Iran must identify suitable native species for large-scale planting programs. Dalbergia sissoo Roxb., (Shisham) is a highly suitable species for economic cultivation in the warm and semi-arid regions of Iran, thanks to its rapid growth, resilience to environmental stresses (such as salinity and drought), and high-quality timber. This study aims to predict suitable cultivation areas for D. sissoo and to identify the key environmental factors influencing its distribution using the MaxEnt model. We employed 18 environmental variables (including climatic, topographic, edaphic factors, and distances to water resources and roads) alongside 425 species occurrence points throughout Khuzestan. The data were converted into raster maps with a resolution of 50 m in GIS using kriging interpolation. A Total of 13 variables were selected based on the evaluation of multicollinearity using the VIF index (<10) and Pearson correlation coefficient (>80 %). Modeling in MaxEnt involved a 70 %/30 % data split for training and validation. Model accuracy was assessed using the ROC curve and AUC index, while variable importance was determined through jackknife testing. The model demonstrated high accuracy (AUC = 0.989). The most significant variable was elevation (contribution: 43.8 %, permutation importance: 88.4 %), followed by minimum relative humidity (15.2 %) and minimum temperature (13.7 %). Ecological response curves indicated optimal conditions for presence at low elevations (<300 m), temperatures ranging from 22 to 25 degrees C, monthly precipitation of 100-125 mm, and proximity to rivers (<= 500 m). Only 0.01 % of the province (450 ha) was classified as having high suitability (presence probability >0.6), while areas with moderate (0.4-0.6) and low suitability (0.2-0.4) comprised 0.72 % (44,499 ha) and 0.35 % (21,516 ha), respectively. Although Khuzestan contains natural habitats for D. sissoo, there are significant ecological constraints to large-scale cultivation. The suitable areas are primarily located in the northern counties (Dezful and Izeh), with distribution closely linked to elevation and humidity. These factors should be prioritized in afforestation planning. This study provides a scientific foundation for restoring degraded lands and reducing Iran's dependency on timber imports.