Desert riparian forests are a vital component of desert ecosystems and play a key role in maintaining their stability. However, these forests are currently facing the threat of large-scale disappearance. As such, effectively assessing the impact of changes in surface water and groundwater on the growth state of desert riparian forests, particularly evaluating the relationship between long-term environmental changes and riparian forests on a large scale, has become a critical research focus. This study combined multi-temporal Sentinel-2 remote sensing data with a random forest model to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of riparian forests and water resources from 2016 to 2023. The results demonstrate the significant influence of water resource changes on the growth, mortality, and distribution of desert riparian forests in arid regions. The findings reveal distinct roles of surface water and groundwater: surface water primarily drives vegetation regeneration, while groundwater supports sustained growth and development. Furthermore, the early arrival of surface water before the growing season significantly accelerates the phenological period of vegetation, with surface water in March exerting the strongest regulatory effect on annual vegetation growth. The study highlights the complex eco-hydrological feedback mechanisms formed by the interaction between surface and groundwater, which act as key drivers of riparian forest dynamics. These findings provide valuable scientific insights for water resource management and the ecological conservation of riparian forests in arid regions.