Piri, Jamshid ， Mirshekari, S. ， Hashemi, S. A. ， Khamari, Issa
2025-10-01 JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURE AND FOOD RESEARCH 2025 23(卷), null(期), (null页)
This study evaluates four forage crop systems (Kochia, Millet, Sorghum, Barley) in Iran's drought-prone Sistan region using emergy analysis integrated with Monte Carlo uncertainty modeling. A number of new sustainability indices were developed specifically for water-limited agricultural environments, including the Water Efficiency Index, the Climate Resilience Factor, and the Integrated Sustainability Index. Based on Monte Carlo simulations (10,000 iterations), Barley has a 67 % probability of ranking first in sustainability across integrated environmental, economic, and water efficiency criteria. Millet demonstrated superior environmental performance while Kochia showed exceptional climate resilience. Multi-objective optimization indicated that diversified strategies with 30 % Barley allocation optimize system sustainability rather than monoculture approaches. This framework provides agricultural stakeholders with probabilistic decision-support tools for adapting forage systems to increasing water scarcity and climate uncertainty.