Accurate assessment of land-use related carbon release is critical for sustainable development, particularly in arid regions vulnerable to urbanization and climate change. This study takes the representative Tulufan-Hami Basin as the research area. By integrating the System Dynamics (SD) and Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) models, combining three shared socio-economic pathways, and using the Grey Model (GM(1,1)) to predict energy demand in 2030, the study systematically analyses the spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics of land use and carbon emissions. Between 2005 and 2020, Tulufan-Hami Basin's land-use intensity rose by 2.26%, 1.09%, and 1.12% per five-year period, with the most significant change occurring 2005-2010. Concurrently, the net carbon emissions for the region consistently increased during this period, with a total rise of 3,172.67 x 104t. In comparison to 2020, the net carbon emissions in 2030 witnessed an increase in all three scenarios, specifically by 1,118.96 x 104t, 1,119 x 104t, and 1,119.78 x 104t, respectively. The study highlights the conflict between economic expansion and environmental conservation in arid zones, offering a scientific foundation for developing tailored territorial planning strategies and identifying region-specific decarbonization pathways.