Niche modeling is an effective tool to forecast change in taxa range and evaluate the impacts of human activities on specific species in desert environments. Despite their utility, these methods are rarely applied to Mediterranean plants of Egypt, likely due to the inhospitable nature of many desert areas. The present study attempts to identify the habitat suitable for vegetation communities, and identify environmental drivers of their distribution, and assess the effect of human's activity on the land cover in the Mareotis subsector of Egypt. Using occurrence data from 36 environmental variables and 291 plots, the Maxent algorithm was utilized to forecast the suitability of the habitat for four vegetation communities. Additionally, seven Landsat 8 satellite images were analyzed and classified using supervised classification to track land use/ cover changes (LULC). The Area Under the Curve (AUC) values of the models exceeded 0.9, revealing strong prediction accuracy, and reliable forecasts of Mediterranean plant communities' possible geographical distribution. Elevation, wind speed, and the lowest temperature of the coldest month were the key bioclimatic drivers influencing the distribution of the majority of groups. The Rocky and gravelly area emerged as the predominant land use category, covering 59.9% of the region. However, 4% of the natural land cover has been converted to croplands, roads, resorts, and built-up areas due to human activities as of 2020. The study's conclusions can help guide management plans meant to save the area's species. Furthermore, similar research in dry regions undergoing comparable land use shifts might use the approach and findings as a reference.