Estimating daily reference evapotranspiration with reduced data input using ensemble learning models in arid and humid regions of China

Accurate estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is key to irrigation system design and agricultural water management. Utilizing meteorological data (1960-2019) from 20 stations in China's humid and arid regions, a reference ETo value was calculated using the FAO56-Penman-Monteith (PM) method. The accuracy of 6 ensemble learning models [e.g., Adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), Categorical boosting (CatBoost), Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), Extra trees, and Light Gradient Boosting Method (LightGBM)] in estimating daily ETo using all available inputs was investigated. The performance of the best three models (CatBoost, GBDT and XGBoost) was then evaluated under 7 input combinations [i.e., complete and incomplete combinations of maximum and minimum temperature (T-max and T-min), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (U-2), total and extra-terrestrial solar radiation (R-s and R-a)], and 4 dataset sizes (20, 30, 40 and 60 years). CatBoost showed the highest estimation accuracy (average R-2 = 0.93), stability, and robustness. Using incomplete combinations based on temperature and other indicators to estimate daily ETo also achieved satisfactory results (R-2 > 0.91), and the key indicators contributing to a difference in ETo prediction accuracy between humid and arid regions were RH and R-a. Different models' accuracy in estimating daily ETo was not affected by dataset size (the difference of RMSE < 0.025), but its stability improves with the increase of the dataset. This study evaluated the models' performance under different data constraints and different regional applications, which provides a methodological reference for ETo simulation in global multiclimatic zones, takes into account accuracy and practicality.