Dong, Yulin , Dou, Yinyin , Kuang, Wenhui , Bao, Yuhai , Dorjgotov, Battogtokh , Wang, Junzhi
2025-10-01 JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES 2025 35(卷), 10(期), (2137-2160页)
A comprehensive understanding of urbanization impacts on landscape dynamics, eco-environmental consequences, and advancements in human habitation is paramount for effectively advancing urbanization-related sustainable development goals. This study predicted the urbanization process within the Hohhot-Baotou-Ordos-Ulanqab (HBOU) region and its projected implications for ecology, human settlement, and energy consumption in 2020-2050 using multi-source data and models under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The results revealed that the HBOU region's urban area grew by 624.66 km2 between 1990 and 2020. By 2050, it is expected to reach 1793.49 +/- 169.30 km2, mainly expanding into cropland (58.95%) and natural ecological land (31.79%). Urban greening is projected to enhance, with the highest urban green space (UGS) predicted under SSP1 (32.42%). Under this scenario, the per capita urban area (PCUA) and per capita urban green space area (PCUGA) are projected to reach 172.66 and 55.63 m2/person in 2050, respectively. Furthermore, the ecological and energy utilization impacts are anticipated to decrease by 3.99% to 37.52% relative to alternative scenarios. Our projections suggest that limiting urbanization area in the HBOU region to 1500-1600 km2 would significantly enhance the settlement environment and mitigate ecological and energy consumption effects. These results guide urban strategies balancing ecology, energy use, and habitation in arid regions.