Water scarcity in Iran's Gavkhoni Basin has intensified due to accelerated land-use change and ineffective water management. This study employs a spatially explicit Cellular Automata (CA) model to analyze drought-related transformations from 2010 to 2020 and to forecast conditions through 2030. Using Landsat 7 and 8 imagery, three remote sensing indices-the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI)-were derived to monitor vegetation health, surface water availability, and urban expansion at a 30-meter resolution. Three modeling scenarios, each with distinct transition rules and calibration strategies, were tested to simulate land cover dynamics. Scenario 3, based on expert-informed rules and refined parameter tuning, yielded the lowest RMSE values (NDVI: 0.041, NDWI: 0.041, NDBI: 0.075) and was selected for projection. Results indicate a projected 54% decline in surface water and a 53% reduction in vegetation cover by 2030, driven primarily by unsustainable agricultural practices and urban sprawl. The expansion of built-up areas, particularly around Isfahan, coincides with ecological degradation in the basin's eastern zones. These findings underscore the dominant role of anthropogenic pressures intensifying regional drought and offer actionable insights for land-use planning, water policy reform, and sustainable development in arid regions.