Cholistan is one of the most significant biological dry zones, characterized by diverse ecological conditions and severe seasonal shifts. This study employed predictive modeling using CMIP6 climate projections, combined with quadrat sampling and multivariate statistical analyses (Hierarchical Cluster Analysis, Detrended Correspondence Analysis, and Canonical Correspondence Analysis), to investigate vegetation dynamics in the Cholistan Desert. A total of 462 quadrats were sampled across lesser and greater Cholistan to document species composition and community structure. The results identified 14 primary plant species belonging to eight families, forming three distinct communities: (i) Haloxylon salicornicum-Crotalaria burhia-Capparis decidua community (HAL-CRO-CAP); (ii) Calligonum polygonoides-Ziziphus nummularia-Haloxylon salicornicum community (CAL-ZIZ-HAL); and (iii) Haloxylon salicornicum-Suaeda fruticosa-Haloxylon stocksii community (HAL-SAU-HAL). Detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) revealed distinct vegetation patterns in the Cholistan Desert, showing specific habitat preferences for different plant communities. Interdunal areas supported more vegetation than high-sand dunes and clayey saline flat areas. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) showed strong associations between vegetation communities and multiple bioclimatic variables, with moisture availability (NDWI) and temperature range (Bio07) being key drivers shaping vegetation communities in the Cholistan Desert. Projections from the GFDL-ESM4 model indicate complete vegetation loss by 2100 under SSP585, whereas the CAL-ZIZ-HAL community expands under SSP126 and SSP370, with the other two communities remaining stable. Spatial mapping estimated the desert area at 40,473 km(2), with HAL-CRO-CAP, CAL-ZIZ-HAL, and HAL-SAU-HAL communities covering 25.7%, 38.6%, and 35.7% of the desert area, respectively. These findings highlight the vulnerability of Cholistan's vegetation to climate change, emphasizing that sustainable management strategies are urgently needed to mitigate ecological and economic challenges in this arid region.