Simplified Cloud-Topped Mixed Layer Model Explains Observed Spatial Pattern of Soil Moisture-Precipitation Feedback Across the Conterminous United States
Ryu, Kyoungho ， Salvucci, Guido D.
2025-11-03 GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 2025 52(卷), 21(期), (null页)
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Inconsistent findings in soil moisture (SM)-precipitation feedback literature motivate further research into the role of the boundary layer in these feedbacks. The present study explores mechanisms that can explain the spatial patterns found in a previous analysis employing satellite measured SM: positive feedback in the semi-arid western U.S. (higher morning SM predicting greater likelihood of afternoon rainfall), and negative feedback in the humid east. Using a cloud-topped boundary layer model, we examine how evaporative fraction (EF, a proxy for SM) influences cloud mass flux (CMF). We then use logistic regression to relate CMF to precipitation. The results are consistent with the previous analysis: in semi-arid areas, increased humidification with increased EF dominates CMF strength, yielding net positive feedbacks; in humid areas, reductions in convective velocity with increasing EF dominate the CMF, yielding net negative feedbacks. Such offsetting feedbacks may contribute to inconsistencies reported in the literature.
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