2026-02-01 ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 2026 331(卷), null(期), (null页)
On April 16th, 2024, Dubai experienced a record-breaking extreme rainfall event, with a total precipitation of 132.21 mm, accounting for 95.83 % of the month's total rainfall. The precipitation rate on April 16th was 128.86 mm/day, reflecting the abruptness of this event. This study defined the "Chimney effect" with this heavy rainfall. Using moisture budget analysis, the primary driver for this event was the anomalous vertical convection (7.46 mm/day), which was mainly contributed by the anomalous updrafts (exceeding 1.5 Pa/s). Conversely, the climatological zonal convection (-7.07 mm/day) had the largest inhibiting impact on rainfall. The anomalous signal of atmospheric circulation was 8 days earlier than this heavy rainfall, which was initially identified on April 8th with anomalous westerlies to the south of Dubai. This consistent phenomenon was accompanied by an anomalous northerlies on the 14th, resulting in a low pressure center over Dubai on the 16th, with a low-level convergence and upper-level divergence character. The increase of sea surface temperature in the northern Indian Ocean facilitated the transfer of moisture to Dubai. The presence of robust updrafts from 1000 to 200 hPa over Dubai on the 16th, shaped by an intense low pressure system, resulted in the lifting and cooling of warm and humid air from the Indian Ocean, culminating in heavy rainfall. While this event highlights the impact of climate change on arid regions, the study emphasizes the need to improve the resilience of infrastructure, particularly in light of the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.