Mehrvarz, Zahra , Saghafian, Bahram , Raziei, Tayeb , Hoghoughinia, Kousha
2025-05-31 MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT 2025 11(卷), 4(期), (null页)
Identifying homogeneous precipitation zones is essential for regional water resource management and climate zone adaptation. However, previous studies have been limited by relatively short temporal datasets and/or adopting inconsistent clustering approaches. This study develops a statistical modeling framework that integrates Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with unsupervised clustering algorithms to distinguish precipitation regimes across Iran. Using a 40-year precipitation dataset (1980-2020) from 93 synoptic stations, the model incorporates both monthly and seasonal temporal scales. PCA was used for dimensionality reduction, capturing 87.8% of the variance in the seasonal dataset, thereby identifying dominant precipitation patterns. Two clustering techniques, namely Ward's hierarchical and k-means, were applied to identify and validate precipitation zones, with clustering quality assessed using Silhouette scores. Adopting similar methods have been reported in other regions, while this study examines the suitability of clustering methods in the context of diverse climates of Iran. Ward's method, achieving a superior Silhouette score of 0.43 in the seven-cluster configuration, demonstrated a high degree of intra-cluster cohesion, particularly in the central arid regions. In contrast, k-means displayed more structured patterns in the northern and northwestern regions. Further refinement of the clustering process resulted in an optimal five-cluster configuration for the monthly scenario, using Ward's method which yielded a Silhouette score of 0.57, indicating improved cohesion and better geographic representation. This study underscores the importance of regional precipitation patterns for regionally-focused decision-making in water management sector, environmental planning, and climate adaptation strategies, providing an updated and statistically robust framework for understanding Iran's diverse climatic regions.