Climate change (CC) is a growing threat to water security in agricultural regions, particularly in semi-arid areas. This study evaluates the impact of CC on reference evapotranspiration (ET0) in Irrigation District 001 Pabell & oacute;n de Arteaga, Aguascalientes (DR 001), with the aim of strengthening its sustainable management. We used historical data (2002-2023) and future projections (2026-2100) from 22 CMIP6 global climate models, previously corrected for bias under the scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The evaluation of the correction methods showed that PTF-scale performed best in correcting precipitation, solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed, although the latter showed a low correlation. The maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures showed a better fit with the RQUANT and QUANT methods. The ACCESS-ESM1-5 model displayed the best performance in six of the nine corrected variables; therefore, it was the most suitable model to estimate ET0. The uncertainty analysis showed that the FAO-56 method, although characterized by a higher current error, is more robust for future projections. A progressive increase in ET0 is projected under both CC scenarios, ranging from 13.0 to 15.8% (SSP2-4.5), and between 12.5 and 20.4% (SSP5-8.5). The results highlight the urgent need to implement water adaptation strategies in DR 001 and make informed decisions to achieve resilient water management in the face of CC.