Masoudi, Masoud , Asrari, Elham , Younesfard, Ali Reza , Haghighi, Ali Torabi
2025-12-01 EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT 2025 9(卷), 4(期), (3551-3579页)
Climate change is a growing environmental threat worldwide, and the Middle East is among the most vulnerable regions due to its arid environment and persistent water shortages. This study is the first comprehensive evaluation of recent climate change hazards over the past 40 years across the entire Middle East region, using geostatistical methods within a GIS environment. Despite the urgency, research on long-term climate variability in this area remains limited, especially studies employing high-resolution, spatially detailed data, including recent data for the whole region. Many previous studies have focused solely on individual climate factors such as temperature. Therefore, analyzing multiple climate parameters provides a broader understanding of climate change. This research aims to fill these gaps by offering a detailed spatial and statistical analysis of changes in precipitation, temperature, and the De Martonne climate index across the Middle East. It used NOAA weather data from 1979 to 2017, featuring a high-resolution dataset with 708 grid points at 1 degrees x 1 degrees resolution. Geostatistical interpolation techniques, specifically Kriging, were applied within a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework to accurately map the spatial distribution of climate change. Additionally, the study employed the nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test to evaluate the significance of observed trends, providing a comprehensive view of regional climate dynamics. The results reveal a clear warming trend in the Middle East: approximately 91% of the area studied has experienced statistically significant temperature increases, averaging 1.32 degrees C, much higher than the global average. Hotspots, such as in the southern Arabian Peninsula, have observed temperature rises exceeding 6 degrees C. In contrast, precipitation trends are more complex: 62% of the region shows no significant change, 31% experience declines, and only 7% Report an increase. Overall, rainfall decreased by an average of 7.58% during the study period. Similar to precipitation patterns, most of the region (66%) exhibited insignificant changes in the De Martonne climate index, while the remaining areas show significant intensification of climate aridity (30%) compared to regions with more humid trends (4%). These findings highlight the increasing threat of desertification and water scarcity. This study enhances our understanding of climate change by providing a robust, spatially detailed assessment of long-term climate variability in a geopolitically sensitive area. It underscores the accelerated warming in the Middle East relative to global trends and the uneven distribution of precipitation changes. The results emphasize the need for urgent, location-specific adaptation and mitigation strategies tailored to the region's intensifying aridification and warming trends.Graphical AbstractThis assessment is the first comprehensive study of its kind to evaluate recent climate change hazards across the entire Middle East region from 1979 to 2017. This study used precipitation and temperature data obtained from the NOAA database. Examining 708 network points with a 1 degrees x 1 degrees spatial resolution, we employed Mann-Kendall statistical tests and advanced geostatistical techniques, including kriging, for spatial analysis. The result is a series of detailed trend maps that clearly illustrate significant climate changes over the past 40 years. The findings are alarming in the region, considering significant trends: 91% of the area faced a temperature rise. While 31% of the region experienced declining trends in precipitation, only 7% saw increases. According to the De Martonne climate index, 30% of the area has become drier, with only 4% indicating increased humidity. These results reveal a troubling trend in the Middle East, where average temperatures have risen by 1.32 degrees C and precipitation has declined by 7.58%, resulting in increasingly arid conditions. The region is experiencing temperature increases that exceed the global average, compounding the challenges posed by climate change. To combat these critical issues, we must focus on two key strategies: (1) significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and (2) adapting to the changes that are already underway.