The Tarim River Basin (TRB)-China's largest dryland watershed-was evaluated at 1-km resolution for five benchmark years (2000-2020) to quantify the coupled dynamics of water yield (WY), carbon sequestration (CS) and food provision (FP). CS supply remained essentially unchanged at approximate to 5.5 t hm-2, yet demand rose from 0.126 to 1.354 t hm-2, driving the CS supply-demand index (CS_SDI) from 0.955 to 0.605. WY supply peaked at 230.8 m3 hm-2 in 2005 but fell to 119.6 m3 hm-2 by 2020, leaving WY_SDI persistently negative (-0.286 to-0.217). FP supply climbed from 0.025 to 0.033 t hm-2 and FP_SDI from 0.351 to 0.473. Spatially, high-supply-lowdemand (HL) cells dominate CS (57.8 %) and WY (56.4 %), whereas FP is overwhelmingly low-supply-lowdemand (62.8 %), underscoring the disconnect between mountain-front production zones and desert-edge oases. Correlation analysis reveals a strong WY-FP trade-off at city scale (r =-0.66) that weakens or reverses at county (r =-0.19) and grid scales (FP-CS r = +0.30) as crop area expands from 24 537 km2 to 39 008 km2. Overlaying resource pressure, ecological intent and management urgency yields twelve composite zones. The Water-yield x Enhancement x High-priority (WEH) class alone spans 389306 km2 (43.71 %), identifying where drip-irrigation retrofits, aquifer recharge and river-corridor restoration should be front-loaded. Two further classes-WEM (11.35 %) and CPM (9.00 %)-form a second tier requiring efficiency upgrades and carbon-sink protection. These multi-scale diagnostics provide a basin-wide, data-driven template for reallocating water rights, restoration funds and carbon offsets.