Hydrological response to climate change and urbanization in a semi-arid urban river

The ecological and topographical characteristics of the urban river catchment have undergone significant changes due to climate change and increasing human encroachments, leading to heightened complexity and unpredictability in hydrological responses. The interplay between climate change and human activities has resulted in distinct hydrological patterns in urban upland areas and the more developed midstream and downstream regions, fundamentally altering the hydrodynamics of urban rivers. These alterations have a profound impact on riverine water resource management and the preservation of aquatic habitats. This study focuses on the Bahe River Basin (BRB) and utilizes various data sources, including topography, hydro-meteorological observations, land use information, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). This research utilizes an advanced distributed hydrological model, known as GBHM, to explore the intricate interplay between climate variability and human interventions, examining their consequential impacts on the basin's hydrological cycle. Furthermore, the study explores the interactions between riparian water bodies and urban downstream aquifers under changing environmental conditions using Visual MODFLOW software for groundwater modeling. The results disclose that climate change is the primary force influencing the variability in runoff in the BRB, constituting 66.58 % of its yearly fluctuations. Human activities have also played a significant role since the early 21st century. Initiatives to restore ecosystems upstream by converting farmlands into forests have resulted in improved vegetation cover, higher evapotranspiration rates, and increased soil moisture levels. The construction of the reservoir has reduced runoff by around 25 %, whereas rubber dams in urban areas have increased groundwater levels by 1.1 to 9.6 m. However, upstream reservoirs have only slightly elevated groundwater levels with lower recharge capacity than urban rubber dams. The projected removal of rubber dams in the future is expected to raise groundwater levels but significantly decrease overall recharge volume. These findings provide valuable insights into water resource assessment and the development of sustainable management strategies for semi-arid urban rivers, potentially serving as a guiding framework for future policies to ensure sustainable urban management.