No apparent state-dependency of equilibrium climate sensitivity between the Pleistocene glacial and interglacial climate states

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  • Quantifying climate sensitivity is essential for future climate projections, yet it varies with major Earth system changes. We present a glacial CO2 reconstruction using paleosols from the Chinese Loess Plateau, covering 2580 to 800 thousand years ago. A stepwise decline in glacial CO2 levels from similar to 300 ppm to <200 ppm is observed. Our paleosol-based CO2 estimates support the key role of atmospheric CO2 in driving major climate transitions during the Pleistocene, such as the long-term global cooling and the amplification of the glacial cycles. Based on compiled glacial and interglacial CO2 records, Earth system sensitivity, defined as the global temperature change for a doubling of CO2 once the whole Earth system has reached equilibrium, is estimated to be similar to 6.2-7.4 K (3.2-12.0 K, 95% confidence). Equilibrium climate sensitivity, after accounting for the different efficacy between ice-sheet and CO2 forcing and other slow feedbacks, is estimated to be 3.3 K (2.1-6.3 K, 95% confidence) and 3.7 K (1.7-6.3 K, 95% confidence), respectively. The lack of a significant difference between these values suggests no apparent state-dependency of climate sensitivity between glacial and interglacial climate states.

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