A Probabilistic Approach to the Nitrate Risk Assessment of Groundwater in Intensively Farmed Region of Southeast Türkiye
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This study aims to assess the spatial distribution and health risk potential of nitrate (NO3-) contamination in groundwater resources of the Harran Plain, a semi-arid agricultural region in Southeastern T & uuml;rkiye. Groundwater samples were collected from 20 locations during pre- and post-irrigation periods and analyzed for a range of hydrochemical parameters. A probabilistic risk assessment framework, based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) guidelines, was employed to evaluate non-carcinogenic health risks across different demographic groups. The integration of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), multivariate statistical analyses, and Monte Carlo simulation enabled a comprehensive evaluation of exposure scenarios and contributing factors. This research contributes to the scientific understanding of groundwater vulnerability in intensively farmed areas, provides a decision-support framework for water quality management, and emphasizes the importance of protecting sensitive populations in nitrate-affected regions.
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