Kumar, Shashi Bhushan ， Kumar, Ajay ， Gupta, Utsav ， Mishra, Ashok
2025-10-03 HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL 2025 70(卷), 13(期), (2345-2359页)
This study examines the spatial-temporal dynamics of droughts using historical and projected data. The historical period is divided into a base period (1966-1995) and an impact period (1996-2023), with 1995 identified as a change point using the Mann-Kendall test. Future projections are analysed for near-future (2024-2053) and far-future (2054-2083) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. Thirteen CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) were analysed and the top five GCMs were chosen, using the Taylor Skill Score, to project future drought scenarios through a multi-model ensemble obtained with a random forest approach. The temporal and spatial analysis of drought conditions; analysed by Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 3, 6, and 12-month scales; underscore a worrying trend towards more frequent and severe droughts in the basins, especially under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. The results highlight the worsening severity of droughts in the region.