Exploring the Significant Sensitivity of Hailstorm Simulation to Variations in Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes

Zhao, Jingya , Li, Xiaofei , Yue, Zhiguo

2025-08-01 WEATHER AND FORECASTING 2025   40(卷), 8(期), (1281-1306页)

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The intricate nature of the physical parameterization schemes within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model poses challenges in accurately simulating hailstorms, particularly the complex cloud processes involved. Significant yet robust differences in sensitivities between two different parameterization schemes in two ensembles, namely, the microphysical parameterization (MP) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes, are found when simulating a hailstorm in the Loess Plateau region of China by comparing with observations. Experiments with variation in the MP scheme overestimate the strong reflectivity region (>45 dBZ) compared to radar observations. Conversely, experiments with variation in the PBL scheme better match observed locations, showing slightly higher peak reflectivity (>55 dBZ) in vertical structure compared to variation in the MP scheme. The reflectivity intensity in experiments with variation in the MP scheme is influenced by elevated rain mixing ratios below the 0 degrees C layer, rain-snow differences between 0 degrees and-38 degrees C, high ice crystal mixing ratios in certain members, and the combination of strong vertical wind shear variations and extensive, intense cold zones. While experiments with variation in the PBL scheme exhibit less variation in hydrometeor mixing ratios compared to variation in the MP scheme, significant differences persist among members, with some members doubling the particle mixing ratio. The reflectivity intensity is impacted by notable differences in the structures of vertical velocity, updraft volume, and the potential temperature perturbation between 0 degrees and-38 degrees C. This study highlights the importance of describing both MP and PBL schemes to improve the accuracy of hailstorm simulations in numeric models.