Senapati, Ujjal , Dar, Junaid , Maity, Rajib
2025-08-27 JOURNAL OF EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE 2025 134(卷), 3(期), (null页)
Climate change-induced drought events are escalating, posing significant threats to global sustainability and human well-being. The study focuses on analyzing future drought characteristics in the Upper Dwarakeswar River Basin (UDRB), West Bengal, India, using CMIP6 projections under the SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios. The empirical quantile mapping (EQM) method is employed to correct biases in the CMIP6 precipitation data for the period 2020-2050, using precipitation data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) as the reference. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) is employed to assess agricultural, meteorological, hydrological and groundwater droughts in the study region. We found an increasing drought risk with varying intensity in SSP370 as compared to SSP585 over the study region. Despite variations in severity, both scenarios show a consistent pattern of drought risk over the 30-year period. Also, the central portion of the UDRB is sensitive to drought than other regions. This research enriches our understanding of future drought dynamics at a regional scale, providing actionable insights for sustainable water resources and integrated river basin management policies in semi-arid, drought-prone regions. The findings underscore the importance of localized analyses in understanding the localized impacts of climate change and highlight the necessity of considering rainfall patterns for effective drought monitoring and prognosis to face the implications of a changing climate.