Multi-objective irrigation strategies and production prediction for winter wheat in China in future dry years using CERES-wheat model and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II

Yang, Cuiping , Liu, Changhong , Qiu, Zhiyuan , Wang, Shuxian , Xing, Xuguang , Ma, Xiaoyi

2025-03-01 COMPUTERS AND ELECTRONICS IN AGRICULTURE 2025   230(卷), null(期), (null页)

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Optimizing irrigation strategies is essential for averting water shortages and ensuring future food security. However, irrigation strategies and yield predictions for the future winter wheat in China remain unclear. The present study coupled the CERES-Wheat model with the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II to develop a multi-objective irrigation strategy optimization framework. Optimal irrigation strategies for multiple main winter wheat production regions in China during future dry years were determined under the decision objectives of maximizing yield and water productivity (WP). The results reveal that the total irrigation amount is projected to increase by 10.1 %-24.5 % in the future (2021-2100), with irrigation dates advancing by 3-20 days, compared with the baseline (1981-2020). In future dry years, the recommended total irrigation amounts for winter wheat production areas in the Huang-Huai-Hai (HHH), Loess Plateau (LP), Southwest China (SW), and Xinjiang (XJ) regions are 182-204, 193-217, 151-179, and 211-227 mm, respectively. In HHH, LP, and XJ regions, more than 85 % of the areas will require irrigation during the overwintering, jointing, and filling stages; in the SW region, irrigation will be required during the jointing and filling stages in 70.2 %-87.2 % of the entire region. Implementation of the optimized irrigation strategy is anticipated to improve winter wheat yields and WP by 9.3 %-14.5 % and 11.8 %-23.7 %, respectively, compared with the baseline. Notably, the increase in winter wheat irrigation amount required in SW and XJ is expected to be 8.6 %-30.9 % higher than in HHH and LP. However, the corresponding increase in yield is projected to be 6.1 %-11.6 % lower than in the HHH and LP. These findings suggest that the potential for winter wheat production in HHH and LP is larger than in SW and XJ. This study proposed a multi-objective irrigation scheduling optimization framework and predicted the optimal irrigation strategies for future winter wheat cultivation in China, thereby providing a scientific reference for the management of agricultural water resources in primary winter wheat production areas.