Li, Yulan , Gong, Hainan , Chen, Wen , Wang, Lin
2025-10-01 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 2025 38(卷), 20(期), (5759-5774页)
Summer precipitation on the Mongolian Plateau (MP) is a crucial climate indicator in arid and semiarid regions, significantly influencing water resources and climate variability. This study evaluates the capability of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models to reproduce the observed spatial pattern of precipitation climatology and interannual variability over the MP. Although the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) of the CMIP6 models can roughly capture the overall spatial distribution of MP precipitation, there are significant differences among the models, particularly in the simulation of precipitation variability on the MP. Here, we extract the leading intermodel mode of the MP precipitation variability, accounting for over 50% of the total intermodel uncertainty, and investigate the sources of these uncertainties. The results show that the dominant intermodel precipitation uncertainty mode reveals a meridional dipole pattern across the 30-model ensemble members, with fl flooding in northern MP but drought in southern MP. This structure is attributed to El Ni & ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-interference circulation anomalies in MP, driven by an extratropical teleconnection wave train triggered by the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Further analysis investigates the role of ENSO in affecting MP precipitation patterns, revealing that models with greater ENSO intensity tend to have amplified interannual variability and lower similarity to observed precipitation distribution. Enhancing the reproduction of ENSO variability in models could mitigate biases in the simulated relationship between MP precipitation and ENSO, thereby improving the accuracy of MP precipitation pattern simulations.