Understanding gap patterns and their dynamics in response to climate change is essential to reveal the regeneration-survival trade-offs in dryland forests. However, few studies have quantitatively assessed forest gap characteristics in regions undergoing significant environmental stress beyond hydrological and temporal influences. This study investigates temporal gap dynamics in Tugai forests along the Tarim River corridor using field survey datasets collected at 1-year intervals. A total of 60 forest gaps were monitored over an extended period in northwestern China. We analyzed the distribution characteristics of gap sizes, gap makers, gap border trees, and gap regenerations, and examined how climate change influenced gap size and tree mortality using correlation analysis. Our findings show that small- to medium-sized gaps (> 200 m(2)) were prevalent, and young tree mortality (basal diameter < 20 cm) occurred frequently. Most dead trees were either broken or uprooted (77.23%). Increasing temperatures and increased drought severity had a more substantial effect on gap dynamics compared with that of precipitation and evaporation. The gap size and mortality rates substantially increased under rising temperatures and drought severity during the summer (May-September). In contrast, the diameter at breast height of tree mortality decreased. Long-term climatic stress since the 1970s has heightened the sensitivity of dryland Tugai forests to temperature and water availability. Our research emphasized that Tugai forest dynamics will be significantly degenerated by climate change in the future under increasing water scarcity. This study enhances our understanding of the impact of meteorological drivers on degraded ecosystems and proposes management strategies for conservation projects in desertification areas that are confronted with climate change.