Impact of agricultural expansion on groundwater levels: a pathway to achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs)

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  • Securing sufficient food has become a global challenge threatening human survival. Consequently, many governments plan agricultural reclamation projects to increase food production, primarily relying on groundwater due to limited surface freshwater. However, over-exploitation of groundwater jeopardizes the sustainability of these vital resources. This research investigates the impact of one of these agricultural projects on groundwater levels in the Minia governorate of Egypt. Also, this study investigates the effects of groundwater levels on the power needed to extract it. A calibrated 3-D MODFLOW model has been utilized to simulate the response of aquifers, respecting the existing pumping rates and the subjecting of new extension agricultural areas. The findings of the drawdowns demonstrate a decrease in groundwater levels of 21.0, 33.0, 40.0, and 42.0 m, respectively, for 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100 respecting the current operating pumping wells. Based on the proposed new agricultural extension project, these drawdowns will increase to 24.0, 42.0, 48.0, and 51.0 m for the same investigated years. The values of drawdowns are consistent with the permissible limits of drawdowns, recommending going forward with the project. Groundwater depths range from 60 to 105 m, leading to energy requirements between 25 and 44 kWh, corresponding to an area of 11 to 19 m(2) of solar panels. As groundwater levels decline, energy demands will increase by 43%, 50%, 60%, and 66% by 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100, respectively. Energy requirements will necessitate a corresponding expansion of solar panel areas by 46%, 61%, 69%, and 76% by 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100, respectively. The study's findings advocate for the ongoing agricultural project, aligning it with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) focused on addressing desertification, poverty, and hunger. Additionally, the research emphasizes the necessity of combining scientific modelling with policy development to foster sustainable agricultural practices while protecting vital water resources.