Breeding advances in climate adaptation of winter wheat across diverse ecotypes in China

Climate change poses a significant threat to wheat production, critically impacting global food security. However, the extent to which recent genetic advances in wheat breeding affect climate sensitivity and yield under varying environmental conditions remains unclear. Using a dataset of 9669 wheat varieties released between 2012 and 2023, we analysed genetic progress in wheat cultivation across waterland and dryland ecotypes under current climate conditions. Our findings indicate that recent breeding advances have improved wheat yield resilience to climate stress, particularly under waterland conditions. In these environments, the combined effects of mean temperature (Tmean), precipitation, and solar radiation led to yield increases of 9.3 % and 8.7 % in the advanced breeding series, compared with 8.1 % for the check variety (CK). Under dryland conditions, climate change led to yield losses of 4.6 % and 4.8 % for the advanced breeding series. Nevertheless, they still performed better than CK, which experienced a larger reduction of 6.4 %. Further analysis revealed that the advanced breeding series showed improved yield responses to Tmean, with gains 0.95 % and 2.07 % higher than CK under waterland conditions. Our findings also indicate that recent genetic advances have reduced the sensitivity of wheat yield to adverse climate factors, particularly under waterland conditions, suggesting a positive role of breeding in enhancing resilience. However, under dryland conditions, although breeding reduced yield losses compared to CK under temperature and precipitation variations, overall yield gains were not realized. These results suggest that while wheat breeding has enhanced climate resilience under waterland conditions, further improvement is needed in dryland environments. Future breeding strategies should focus on enhancing adaptability across diverse ecotypes to secure sustainable wheat production under climate change.