Integrating transfer entropy and network analysis to explore social-ecological resilience evolution: a case study in South China Karst

Li, Yueying , Peng, Li , Li, Sainan , Yue, Yuemin , Wang, Kelin

2025-08-01 JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 2025   518(卷), null(期), (null页)

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Understanding the evolution of social-ecological resilience in ecologically fragile regions and the complex interactions among their system components and elements is crucial for improving a region's ability to withstand disturbances and uncertain events. This study analyzed 33 years (1990-2022) of social-ecological system (SES) dynamics in South China Karst by integrating transfer entropy and network analysis. We developed a Social--Ecological Resilience Index (SERI) to identify three evolutionary stages: "rapid development exerting pressure on the environment," "accumulation of environmental pressure and ecological state transition," and "development in synergy with the environment'. Transfer entropy was introduced to quantify the information flow among dimensions at the system component level. This has shown the dynamic mechanisms among social development, ecological environment and human well-being. Network analysis identified social development nodes as crucial factors shaping the structure and function of the system. The strengthening of social-ecological relationships and the reduced significance of rock desertification nodes in the network were also observed. The academic significance lies in advancing theoretical frameworks on the evolution of resilience in SES, offering new insights into human-environment dynamics in the fragile ecosystems. Technically, the study integrated transfer entropy and network analysis, which provide advanced capabilities for capturing the nonlinear dynamics of SES. By revealing the nonlinear influence patterns and feedback loops, the study provides valuable insights for evaluating the effects of policies and large-scale ecological projects. These findings offer essential guidance for achieving sustainable development goals in other ecologically fragile regions globally.