2025-05-01 PLANT ECOLOGY 2025 226(卷), 5(期), (497-511页)
Drylands species are extremely sensitive to the effects of climate change, with rising temperatures and decreased precipitation capable of shifting species ranges and distributions. Dyckia Schult. & Schult.f. is one of the main xeromorphic bromeliad genera and is endemic to South America. We assessed the current and future distributions of two Brazilian endemic Caatinga domain species (D. dissitiflora and D. pernambucana) under both optimistic (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways with controled CO2 emissions; SSP2-4.5) and pessimistic (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways with greater CO2 emissions; SSS5-8.5) climate change scenarios using ecological niche modeling. Our data indicate that these species are already endangered because of their limited areas of occurrence, allowed us to identify current environmentally suitable areas for both species, and revealed significant reductions in their projected suitable habitats, particularly under pessimistic climate change scenarios. Only small fractions of these projected suitable areas are currently protected, highlighting conservation gaps. Even with their distinctly segregated distributions within the Caatinga domain, D. dissitiflora and D. pernambucana show similar ecological responses to climate change that reflect their evolutionary histories and help to explain why both species occur on elevated rock outcrops. These findings underscore the need for proactive conservation strategies to safeguard these species from escalating threats of climate change and habitat degradation in the vulnerable tropical Caatinga domain.