2025-02-07 CLIMATE DYNAMICS 2025 63(卷), 2(期), (null页)
In spite of forecasts for anomalous dryness based on the canonical La Ni & ntilde;a signal, Water Years 2011, 2017, and 2023 brought copious precipitation to California and the Southwestern United States (SWUS). Although El Ni & ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main source of seasonal precipitation predictability for the region, outstanding Atmospheric River (AR) activity produced the unexpected regional wetness in each of these heretical water years (WYs). We define heretical WYs as those that result in precipitation anomalies that oppose those expected based on ENSO canon. We assess the contribution of ARs and other storms to these WYs, finding that heretical La Ni & ntilde;a/El Ni & ntilde;o WYs were characterized by anomalously robust/deficient AR activity. In California, precipitation accumulation during the heretical La Ni & ntilde;a WYs was comparable to or even exceeded that observed during the exceedingly wet WY1998-the textbook canonical El Ni & ntilde;o year. Our findings indicate a weaker/stronger relationship between ENSO and AR/non-AR precipitation, primarily driven by storm frequency. Although ARs can disrupt the ENSO-precipitation signal, ENSO still influences the frequency of AR precipitation in the southwestern U.S. desert, the region influenced by ARs that make landfall in Baja California, Mexico. These results highlight the complexity of ENSO's impact on precipitation in the Western US and underscore the need for a nuanced understanding of ENSO's influence on ARs to improve seasonal precipitation prediction.