Dew and Rain Evolution from Climate Change in Semi-Arid South-Western Madagascar between 1991 and 2033 (Extrapolated)

Rasoafaniry, Adriana , Muselli, Marc , Beysens, Daniel

2024-07-01 ATMOSPHERE 2024   15(卷), 7(期), (null页)

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  • In the context of global warming and the increasing scarcity of fresh water resources, it becomes significant to evaluate the contribution and evolution of non-rainfall waters such as dew. This study therefore aims to evaluate the relative dew and rain contributions in three sites of south-western of Madagascar (Ifaty, Toliara, and Andremba), a semi-arid region which suffers from a strong water deficit. The studied period is 1/1991-7/2023, with extrapolation to 7/2033. Dew is calculated from meteo data by using a well-established energy model. The extrapolation of dew and rain follows an artificial neural network approach. It is found that dew forms regularly (2-3 days on average between events), in contrast to rain (10-15 days). The evolutions of dew and rain are similar, with an increase from 1991 to 2000, a decrease up to 2020 and a further increase until 2033. These oscillations follow the Indian Ocean dipole variations and should be influenced by climate change. Dew contributions to the water balance remain modest on a yearly basis (3-4%) but is important during the dry season (Apr.-Oct.), up to 30%. Dew therefore appears to be a reliable and sustainable resource for plants, small animals, and the population, especially during droughts.