Climate Change and Potential Demise of the Indian Deserts
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In contrast to the "wet gets wetter and dry gets drier" paradigm, here, using observations and climate model simulations, we show that the mean rainfall over the semi-arid northwest parts of India and Pakistan has increased by 10%-50% during 1901-2015 and is expected to increase by 50%-200% under moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios. The GHG forcing primarily drives the westward expansion of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and is facilitated by a westward expansion of the Indian Ocean (IO) warm pool. Mechanistically, the westward expansion of ISMR is a consequence of the episodic genesis over IO and the northward propagation of an expanded Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone on a sub-seasonal time scale. While an adaptation strategy to increased hydrological disasters is a must, harnessing the augmented rainfall would lead to a substantial boost in food productivity, bringing transformative changes in the socio-economic condition of people in the region.