Li, L. , Zhang, B. , Wen, A. M. , Xao, X. J.
2022 APPLIED ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022 20(卷), 5(期), (3977-3993页)
The impact and feedback of climate-vegetation interaction on the potential habitat of plants is one of the focuses of terrestrial ecosystem and global climate change research. Based on 246 occurrence records of S. chamaejasme and 28 environmental variables (climate, topography and soil), we predicted and analyzed the suitable habitat distributions and shifts of S. chamaejasme under current and future (by 2050 and 2070) climate scenarios using the maximum entropy (Maxent) model. The Area Under the receiver operating characteristics Curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the model performance. The key environmental factors were screened by Jackknife tests. The results showed the following: 1) AUC values indicated better performance of MaxEnt modeling. 2) Altitude, annual precipitation, extreme moisture conditions (including precipitation of the wettest and the driest month) and mean temperature of the coldest quarter were the most predominant environmental factors influencing S. chamaejasme's habitat suitability. 3) In the current scenario, S. chamaejasme distributed in Qinghai-Tibet plateau, Loess Plateau, Inner Mongolia plateau and Yungui plateau (covering 44.16% of total land of China), especially in Sichuan (37.25%) and Gansu (34.65%) province. 4) With climate change, an increasing trend for the distribution (except in 2050_RCP2.6 and 2050_RCP8.5) had taken place in the area of all suitable classes comparing current and future scenarios overall, while the trends of variation are insignificant. At the same time, the centroid of highly suitable distribution regions shifted to northeast China, and the distribution regions moderately extended to the south. This paper may provide a deep insight for further research and practice management on S. chamaejasme.