Modelling the abundance of a non-native mollusk in tropical semi-arid reservoirs

This study aimed to investigate the relative importance of abiotic factors and biotic resistance (expressed as species richness of native macroinvertebrates), through a correlative niche-based model, to explain the abundance of the non-native mollusk Melanoides tuberculata. A total of 478 sites were sampled in six reservoirs in a Brazilian semi-arid region in June, September, December (2014) and March (2015). A niche-based model (BRT's), which included all tested predictor variables explained 41.7% total variation in M. tuberculata abundance. Water depth had the highest relative importance (19.0% of relative contribution) followed by temperature (17.2%) and sediment organic matter content (15.4%). The native macroinvertebrate richness explained only 8.0%, evidencing the smaller role of biotic resistance in explaining M. tuberculata abundance. Our results suggest that factors associated with the extent of species' niches are more important and can determine the multiple invasion processes of this mollusk, especially in terms of population growth and spread. The low explanatory power of biotic resistance on the abundance and distribution of the invasive mollusk may not necessarily indicate a lack of resistance by the native community, and M. tuberculata is not widespread enough to occupy the total potential range.