Impact of climate change on groundwater levels in Sirhind Canal Tract of Punjab, India

Kaur, Navdeep , Kaur, Samanpreet , Kaur, Prabhjyot , Aggarwal, Rajan

2021-11-01 GROUNDWATER FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 2021   15(卷), null(期), (null页)

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Changing global climate predicts a warmer future which may alter the hydrological cycle, surface water as well as groundwater resource. Groundwater plays an ineradicable role in supplying its water needs to the arid and semi-arid parts of Punjab, region susceptible to the issue of diminishing groundwater resources and the effects of climate change. Thus, a study was performed to simulate the outcomes of the climate change on groundwater levels in Sirhind Canal Tract of Punjab using MODFLOWfor two future time spans, i.e. mid-century (MC) (2020-2050) and end century (EC) (2065-2095) based on CSRIO-Mk 6-CM model, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 climate scenarios. Two pumping conditions were considered-Condition A assumes that the number of tube wells till EC, would remain same as that of 2018 and Condition B considers that the number of tube wells are expected to increase till 2050, in accordance to the augmenting trend of years 2013-14 to 2017-18. The mean temperature of the tract is predicted to increaseby1.9 degrees C in MC and 3.6 degrees C in EC in RCP 4.5, and by 1.6 degrees C in MC and 3.5 degrees C in EC in RCP 6.0. The rainfall is also predicted to increase by 17.7 % and 18.2 % under RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0. The projected change in climate is expected to have positive influence of groundwater recharge with an average increase by 30 % in Condition A and 174 % in Condition B by EC. A fall in water table fall by 5.7 m and 4.3 m by EC under RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0, respectively for pumping Condition A is predicted, whereas higher fall of 45 m and 57.5 m by EC under RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0, was predicted for Condition B.