It is predicted that changes in climate will lead to episodes of large forest decline and mortality. Therefore, the distributions of forest plantations and natural stands might already be facing such impacts. We selected the most arid zone of south-eastern Europe (eastern Andalusia) to assess how the distributions of Pious halepensis Miller. and Pinus pinaster Aiton forest plantations and natural stands cope with climate change and to determine whether natural or planted distributions would be more stable under future climate-change scenarios. We used presence-point locations from natural distributions, obtained from the third Spanish National Forest Inventory, to develop ensemble species distribution models. The forecast predicted a slight increase in the potential distribution of both spedes by 2040, with a subsequent drastic decrease until 2099. Pious halepensis had larger current and future potential distributions than P. pinaster but a slightly greater decrease with time in the potential distribution than that of P. pinaster. On the other hand, the natural and planted distributions of P. halepensis were more vulnerable to future climate change scenarios than those of P. pinaster. Natural populations will likely be more resilient to climate change than planted populations. Study Implications: Our study highlights the different responses of natural and planted pine stands located at the rear-edge of their distribution (Sanchez-Salguero et al. 2013). These different responses suggest that the appropriate silvicultural treatment-with regard to enhancing their ability to cope with the forthcoming changes in climatic and environmental conditions-might differ between natural and planted forests (Sanchez-Salguero et al. 2013, Navarro-Cerrillo et al. 2018a, 2019). Therefore, the main objective of forest managers must be to enhance the adaptive responses of forests to future climate change. In that sense, natural stands are more resistant and resilient to climate change (Navarro-Cerrillo et al. 2018a); that is, natural stands may retain adaptive advantages over plantations in the face of uncertain future climatic conditions. Thus, forest management in natural pine stands might take advantage of ecological legacies, producing micro-site conditions that may enhance tree recruitment, survival, and growth (Nagel et al. 2017). On the other hand, management strategies for planted pine stands should focus on decreasing the stand vulnerability to the increased threats posed by climate change (e.g., drought, pests, and fires), by increasing stand resilience and the capacity to respond to extreme events. Management actions should be sensitive to changing stand conditions or should include interventions that anticipate future changes (Keenan 2015). Consequently, our ability to help forest plantations cope with climate change will be based on a complex silvicultural approach including the reduction in tree densities by thinning, according to the water availability and microsite habitat (Martin-Benito et al. 2011), selective cutting to create less sensitive forest structures (Sanchez-Salguero et al. 2013), or the promotion of mixed forests (Nagel et al. 2017), among other actions (Keenan 2015). Such strategies might help to reduce the impact of climate change on high-density planted pine stands located at the rear-edge of their distribution.