Cenozoic rift basins encompass prolific petroleum systems worldwide. This study investigates the key controls on thermal maturity evolution and hydrocarbon potential in Cenozoic rift basins through comparative analysis of the Gulf of Suez Rift Basin (GOSRB, Egypt) and the Dongpu Rift Basin (DRB, China). Basin modeling of the Lower Rudeis Formation in the central and southern GOSRB integrates subsidence history, erosion, stratigraphic thicknesses, and kinetic models to reconstruct burial, thermal, generation, and expulsion histories. The Lower Rudeis source rock exhibits pronounced spatiotemporal variability in maturity, with the central province achieving early, mid, and late mature stages, high transformation ratios, and predominantly oil-prone systems, while the southern province is characterized by lower transformation ratios, thinner source and overburden successions, and gas-prone charge. These differences are primarily governed by burial depth at the onset of maturity, subsidence and negative subsidence rates, and associated variations in heat flow. Comparison with the DRB shows that both basins share similar crustal thicknesses, rift-related subsidence magnitudes, and high heat flows sufficient to generate efficient petroleum systems from marine source rocks in the Gulf of Suez and lacustrine source rocks in the Dongpu Sag, but differ in rifting duration, structural style, and kerogen assemblages. The results indicate that the principal factors controlling maturity evolution and hydrocarbon potential in Cenozoic rift basins are burial depth to the onset of early maturity, the magnitude of negative subsidence, subsidence rate, thermal regime, source-rock quality, structural architecture, and seal effectiveness. These factors collectively dictate whether rift basins evolve predominantly oil- or gas-prone petroleum systems and provide a predictive framework for exploration in frontier Cenozoic rifts.