A substantial divide has developed between the United States and China since 2017, largely driven by both nations' fundamentally different, and perhaps irreconcilable, objectives and priorities. While conflict is possible, it is also unlikely, as leaders in both countries desperately want to avoid war. The more likely future for US-China relations is one involving heightened economic and technological competition, ongoing regional tension as China continues to coerce its neighbours, and increasing pessimism in both Washington and Beijing about their ability to deter and counter each other. In this environment, meaningful cooperation and improved relations will be improbable.