The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have committed significant efforts to studying the Russia-Ukraine war and drawing lessons for Chinese policy. What lessons are CCP leaders taking from the Russia-Ukraine war and how do these lessons influence China’s future policies? The authors assessed CCP and PLA views of the war’s drivers and outcomes to understand the adaptations that China will likely make for its own competition with the United States. By understanding China’s perspective on and adaptations resulting from the war, U.S. policymakers can better inform decisions related to force development, posture, and employment. 

Research findings collectively suggest that China has increasing opportunities to take advantage of the Russia-Ukraine war to prepare for a future conflict of its own, but its opportunities to avoid such a conflict altogether are diminishing. Party leaders assess that this degraded security environment grants China new strategic opportunities to shape global narratives and security architectures. As a result, the PLA is transitioning to a new vision of warfare that relies less on compelling enemies to surrender with minimal employment of military force and is more resigned to fighting a costly, protracted conflict.