What does a future U.S. economy look like that will meet domestic needs, sustain national security, and operate effectively in a global economy characterized by strategic economic competition? And what are the available policy pathways for achieving that vision? This report presents the principal findings of an exploratory analysis that applies participatory foresight to answer both questions.

In 2023, RAND researchers brought together a diverse group of experts and challenged them to envision the details of a desirable U.S. economy in 2040 and the conditions needed to realize that future. Over two workshops, the experts engaged in an economic and institutional analysis, specifying elements of a vision addressed to domestic, security, and strategic competitive needs. Workshop participants used an innovative and iterative approach to participatory foresight known as Vision, Strategic Concepts, Assumptions, Robust Pathways (VSCARP) that employs a suite of four foresight techniques.

Using VSCARP helped participants identify assumptions necessary to achieve their vision for the U.S. economy in 2040. It also allowed participants to develop and map policy pathways that may enable or impede such a future and identify important elements for crafting a robust strategy to achieve goals while confronting uncertainty. In doing so, they provide a template for similar structured multilateral or cross-agency deliberations grappling with wicked problems and deep uncertainty.

RAND researchers summarize the challenges and successes of undertaking such a participatory foresight process, and they discuss the many complex and interrelated policy pathways toward possible mid-century futures that the process uncovered.