Discussions in Washington about artificial intelligence increasingly turn to how the United States can win the AI race with China. One of President Donald Trump's first acts on returning to office was to sign an executive order declaring the need to "sustain and enhance America's global AI dominance." At the Paris AI Action Summit in February, Vice President JD Vance emphasized the administration's commitment to ensuring that "American AI technology continues to be the gold standard worldwide." And in May, David Sacks, Trump's AI and crypto czar, cited the need "to win the AI race" to justify exporting advanced AI chips to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

Given the prospect that AI could transform the power and prosperity of nations in the decades to come, it is better to win the race than lose it. But determining who is ahead depends on what it means to win. A common definition is being the first to cross the threshold of artificial general intelligence, which in basic terms is an AI model that is as smart or smarter than the top human experts across a wide range of cognitive tasks. AGI could unlock extraordinary breakthroughs in science, technology, and economic productivity—and the first country to develop it could reap disproportionate benefits.