Climate models project that the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) may soon become ice-free in summer for a limited window of time, opening a seasonally navigable route that connects Asia to Europe by crossing over the North Pole. This Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) and its surrounding waters in the CAO have seen little activity and would be available for seasonal commercial and surface military activity, particularly from the surrounding exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of Canada, Denmark (through Greenland and the Faroe Islands), Norway, Russia, and the United States.

In this report, the authors explore how global actors may leverage new maritime access in the CAO for economic, political, and military gain. Drawing on insights from climate models, literature, and expert interviews, they examine current and potential future  maritime uses of the ocean and the TSR by Arctic states and other actors. They then present a scenario in four phases of how these activities could plausibly develop in the CAO over time. The authors find that the most plausible scenario for maritime use of the CAO in the next 25 years is one of limited activity, though numerous factors could lead to expanded commercial and military presence by global actors.