Output 5.2 Transition to renewable energy accelerated capitalizing on technological gains, clean energy innovations and new financing mechanisms to support green recovery

Output 1.1 The 2030 Agenda, Paris Agreement and other intergovernmentally-agreed frameworks integrated in national and local development plans, measures to accelerate progress put in place, and budgets and progress assessed using data-driven solutions Output 1.2 Social protection services and systems strengthened across sectors with increased investment Output 1.3 Access to basic services and financial and non-financial assets and services improved to support productive capacities for sustainable livelihoods and jobs to achieve prosperity Output 1.4 Equitable, resilient and sustainable systems for health and pandemic preparedness strengthened to address communicable and non-communicable diseases, including COVID-19, HIV, tuberculosis, malaria and mental health Output 2.1 Open, agile, accountable and future-ready governance systems in place to co-create and deliver solutions to accelerate SDG achievement Output 2.2 Civic space and access to justice expanded, racism and discrimination addressed, and rule of law, human rights and equity strengthened Output 2.3 Responsive governance systems and local governance strengthened for socio economic opportunity, inclusive basic service delivery, community security, and peacebuilding Output 2.4 Democratic institutions and processes strengthened for an inclusive and open public sphere with expanded public engagement Output 3.1 Institutional systems to manage multi-dimensional risks and shocks strengthened at regional, national and sub-national levels Output 3.2 Capacities for conflict prevention and peacebuilding strengthened at regional, national and sub-national levels and across borders Output 3.3 Risk informed and gender-responsive recovery solutions, including stabilization efforts and mine action, implemented at regional, national and sub-national levels Output 3.4 Integrated development solutions implemented to address the drivers of irregular and forced migration, enhance the resilience of migrants, forcibly displaced and host communities, and expand the benefits of human mobility Output 4.1 Natural resources protected and managed to enhance sustainable productivity and livelihoods Output 4.2 Public and private investment mechanisms mobilized for biodiversity, water, oceans, and?climate solutions Output 5.1 Energy gap closed Output 5.2 Transition to renewable energy accelerated capitalizing on technological gains, clean energy innovations and new financing mechanisms to support green recovery Output 6.1 Country-led measures implemented to achieve inclusive economies and to advance economic empowerment of women in all their diversity, including in crisis contexts Output 6.2 Women’s leadership and participation advanced through implementing affirmative measures, strengthening institutions and civil society, and addressing structural barriers, in order to advance gender equality, including in crisis contexts Output 6.3 National capacities to prevent and respond to gender-based violence (GBV) and address harmful gender social norms strengthened, including in crisis contexts Output E.1 People and institutions equipped with strengthened digital capabilities and opportunities to contribute to and benefit from inclusive digital societies Output E.2 Innovation capabilities built, and approaches adopted to expand policy options at global, regional, national and sub-national levels Output E.3 Public and private financing for the achievement of the SDGs expanded at global, regional, and national levels

Output 2.4.1 Gender-responsive legal and regulatory frameworks, policies and institutions strengthened, and solutions adopted, to address conservation, sustainable use and equitable benefit sharing of natural resources, in line with international conventions and national legislation

Output 3.4.1 Innovative nature-based and gender-responsive solutions developed, financed and applied for sustainable recovery

Output 1.1 The 2030 Agenda, Paris Agreement and other intergovernmentally-agreed frameworks integrated in national and local development plans, measures to accelerate progress put in place, and budgets and progress assessed using data-driven solutions Output 1.2 Social protection services and systems strengthened across sectors with increased investment Output 1.3 Access to basic services and financial and non-financial assets and services improved to support productive capacities for sustainable livelihoods and jobs to achieve prosperity Output 1.4 Equitable, resilient and sustainable systems for health and pandemic preparedness strengthened to address communicable and non-communicable diseases, including COVID-19, HIV, tuberculosis, malaria and mental health Output 2.1 Open, agile, accountable and future-ready governance systems in place to co-create and deliver solutions to accelerate SDG achievement Output 2.2 Civic space and access to justice expanded, racism and discrimination addressed, and rule of law, human rights and equity strengthened Output 2.3 Responsive governance systems and local governance strengthened for socio economic opportunity, inclusive basic service delivery, community security, and peacebuilding Output 2.4 Democratic institutions and processes strengthened for an inclusive and open public sphere with expanded public engagement Output 3.1 Institutional systems to manage multi-dimensional risks and shocks strengthened at regional, national and sub-national levels Output 3.2 Capacities for conflict prevention and peacebuilding strengthened at regional, national and sub-national levels and across borders Output 3.3 Risk informed and gender-responsive recovery solutions, including stabilization efforts and mine action, implemented at regional, national and sub-national levels Output 3.4 Integrated development solutions implemented to address the drivers of irregular and forced migration, enhance the resilience of migrants, forcibly displaced and host communities, and expand the benefits of human mobility Output 4.1 Natural resources protected and managed to enhance sustainable productivity and livelihoods Output 4.2 Public and private investment mechanisms mobilized for biodiversity, water, oceans, and?climate solutions Output 5.1 Energy gap closed Output 5.2 Transition to renewable energy accelerated capitalizing on technological gains, clean energy innovations and new financing mechanisms to support green recovery Output 6.1 Country-led measures implemented to achieve inclusive economies and to advance economic empowerment of women in all their diversity, including in crisis contexts Output 6.2 Women’s leadership and participation advanced through implementing affirmative measures, strengthening institutions and civil society, and addressing structural barriers, in order to advance gender equality, including in crisis contexts Output 6.3 National capacities to prevent and respond to gender-based violence (GBV) and address harmful gender social norms strengthened, including in crisis contexts Output E.1 People and institutions equipped with strengthened digital capabilities and opportunities to contribute to and benefit from inclusive digital societies Output E.2 Innovation capabilities built, and approaches adopted to expand policy options at global, regional, national and sub-national levels Output E.3 Public and private financing for the achievement of the SDGs expanded at global, regional, and national levels

Output 1.1 The 2030 Agenda, Paris Agreement and other intergovernmentally-agreed frameworks integrated in national and local development plans, measures to accelerate progress put in place, and budgets and progress assessed using data-driven solutions Output 1.2 Social protection services and systems strengthened across sectors with increased investment Output 1.3 Access to basic services and financial and non-financial assets and services improved to support productive capacities for sustainable livelihoods and jobs to achieve prosperity Output 1.4 Equitable, resilient and sustainable systems for health and pandemic preparedness strengthened to address communicable and non-communicable diseases, including COVID-19, HIV, tuberculosis, malaria and mental health Output 2.1 Open, agile, accountable and future-ready governance systems in place to co-create and deliver solutions to accelerate SDG achievement Output 2.2 Civic space and access to justice expanded, racism and discrimination addressed, and rule of law, human rights and equity strengthened Output 2.3 Responsive governance systems and local governance strengthened for socio economic opportunity, inclusive basic service delivery, community security, and peacebuilding Output 2.4 Democratic institutions and processes strengthened for an inclusive and open public sphere with expanded public engagement Output 3.1 Institutional systems to manage multi-dimensional risks and shocks strengthened at regional, national and sub-national levels Output 3.2 Capacities for conflict prevention and peacebuilding strengthened at regional, national and sub-national levels and across borders Output 3.3 Risk informed and gender-responsive recovery solutions, including stabilization efforts and mine action, implemented at regional, national and sub-national levels Output 3.4 Integrated development solutions implemented to address the drivers of irregular and forced migration, enhance the resilience of migrants, forcibly displaced and host communities, and expand the benefits of human mobility Output 4.1 Natural resources protected and managed to enhance sustainable productivity and livelihoods Output 4.2 Public and private investment mechanisms mobilized for biodiversity, water, oceans, and?climate solutions Output 5.1 Energy gap closed Output 5.2 Transition to renewable energy accelerated capitalizing on technological gains, clean energy innovations and new financing mechanisms to support green recovery Output 6.1 Country-led measures implemented to achieve inclusive economies and to advance economic empowerment of women in all their diversity, including in crisis contexts Output 6.2 Women’s leadership and participation advanced through implementing affirmative measures, strengthening institutions and civil society, and addressing structural barriers, in order to advance gender equality, including in crisis contexts Output 6.3 National capacities to prevent and respond to gender-based violence (GBV) and address harmful gender social norms strengthened, including in crisis contexts Output E.1 People and institutions equipped with strengthened digital capabilities and opportunities to contribute to and benefit from inclusive digital societies Output E.2 Innovation capabilities built, and approaches adopted to expand policy options at global, regional, national and sub-national levels Output E.3 Public and private financing for the achievement of the SDGs expanded at global, regional, and national levels

Understanding the potential sources of escalatory risk is an increasingly important priority for U.S. policymakers. If rivalries produce a series of crises or even proxy or limited conflicts, the danger of those confrontations escalating to higher levels of violence will be an ever-present concern for U.S. decisionmakers. To support current planning, U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command and U.S. Army Pacific requested that the RAND Arroyo Center investigate potential sources of escalatory risk from U.S. policy actions and build a tool to assess such risks. This report summarizes that work and concludes with the components of the framework. The analysis combines theoretical and historical research with a current assessment of Chinese and Russian views of escalation and a recognition of the way emerging technologies are changing the context for escalatory dynamics. Escalatory pressures can be highly unpredictable and derive from many independent factors. The tool developed in this research can help decisionmakers think more broadly about such risks. However, an actual crisis or wartime situation will involve a complex and nonlinear interaction of these and other factors, including mistakes and accidents, that can be very difficult to control.

Wars between states—particularly protracted, high-intensity conflicts (such as the Russia-Ukraine war), which involve the commitment of significant resources—have the capacity to reshape how states fight by providing both the opportunity and the pressure to use and adapt novel capabilities. In this report, the authors closely examine the tactical and operational levels of the fighting in Ukraine to make eight novel or notable observations about contemporary warfighting. These observations include insights about the use of uncrewed aerial and naval systems in combat, the transparent battlefield and the problem of persistent surveillance, the effectiveness of air defenses and electronic warfare against uncrewed systems, the need for low-cost expendable systems in a protracted conflict, the accessibility of commercial space-based assets for military purposes. The authors also use these observations to forecast the character of future wars by evaluating whether and how their observations might translate to two potential U.S.-involved conflict scenarios: a war in Eastern Europe between North Atlantic Treaty Organization members and Russia and a war in the Indo-Pacific between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. The authors conclude by highlighting the implications of their observations and providing recommendations for the Department of the Air Force, the Department of Defense, and U.S. government policymakers.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have committed significant efforts to studying the Russia-Ukraine war and drawing lessons for Chinese policy. What lessons are CCP leaders taking from the Russia-Ukraine war and how do these lessons influence China’s future policies? The authors assessed CCP and PLA views of the war’s drivers and outcomes to understand the adaptations that China will likely make for its own competition with the United States. By understanding China’s perspective on and adaptations resulting from the war, U.S. policymakers can better inform decisions related to force development, posture, and employment. Research findings collectively suggest that China has increasing opportunities to take advantage of the Russia-Ukraine war to prepare for a future conflict of its own, but its opportunities to avoid such a conflict altogether are diminishing. Party leaders assess that this degraded security environment grants China new strategic opportunities to shape global narratives and security architectures. As a result, the PLA is transitioning to a new vision of warfare that relies less on compelling enemies to surrender with minimal employment of military force and is more resigned to fighting a costly, protracted conflict.

This chapter examines efforts by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to transition its national defense mobilization system (NDMS) from a vehicle for emergency response and economic subsidization to a war-oriented system. Main Argument PRC leaders have twice reoriented the NDMS toward different strategic ends. The system initially embodied the "people's war," leveraging resources across the whole of Chinese society to enable military operations. In the mid to late 2000s, its priorities shifted toward economic development through subsidization and domestic emergency response. Yet the preponderance of these efforts had limited value for wartime mobilization. In 2015 the PRC initiated a series of reforms to prioritize war mobilization capabilities. Key among these reforms is the assumption by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of control over PRC government mobilization planning and support for the military. Reforms further standardized mobilization structures at all levels of government, potentially streamlining mobilization coordination between the government and military. While actual capability improvements remain to be seen, these reforms could effectively free the military from many traditional mobilization responsibilities to enable greater focus on war preparedness. Policy Implications NDRC leadership is likely to encounter significant challenges in posturing China's resources to support PLA requirements for large-scale combat operations, given the competing requirements to recover and develop the nation's economy. The PRC could seek to portray its NDMS as comprehensive, efficient, and effectively oriented to support wartime operations—regardless of the system's true readiness—as a deterrent against the U.S. PLA leaders' requirement that the system become war-oriented suggests that mobilization activities will be a key indicator of Chinese Communist Party leaders' intent or willingness to fight a costly war.

In this report, the authors evaluate the factors that drive regional and third-party responses to territorial revision attempts. They analyze five case studies that span peaceful cession, resistance with little international support, and resistance with significant international support. Each case study occupies a different place in this array, with the case of Hong Kong featuring a fully peaceful cession and the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia seeing some very limited local resistance. The Japanese invasion of Manchuria saw full-scale local resistance with no international support. At first, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait met significant Kuwaiti resistance with no immediate international support, followed by a full-scale coalition response. Last, in the case of the Crimean War, the conflict was internationalized from the very beginning. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, the authors found that third-party states take into account a variety of factors involved in the territorial revision when determining their alignment decisions in its aftermath. These factors include fears of successive revision attempts, continued credible involvement from another outside power, legitimacy according to international and regional organizations, economic links between relevant parties, and the treatment of the population after a territorial takeover.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) employs a system of coded speech to communicate policy directives to its implementing bureaucracy. This coded speech is governed by rules and exists in a specific cultural context, potentially confounding those unfamiliar with that context. CCP leaders deploy these codes through the party propaganda system to issue policy directives, and the codes take the form of slogans, linguistic formulations, or key phrases, collectively called tifa. In this report, the author analyzes tifa by providing an overview of the role and relative authority of the information systems the CCP uses to develop, build consensus around, and promulgate tifa. He also identifies four essential characteristics of tifa. The author concludes that, although tifa analysis has specific limitations, it can produce authoritative determinations of what the CCP tells itself it is doing and why and could yield valuable insights into CCP leader perceptions.