Output 1.1 The 2030 Agenda, Paris Agreement and other intergovernmentally-agreed frameworks integrated in national and local development plans, measures to accelerate progress put in place, and budgets and progress assessed using data-driven solutions

Output 1.1 The 2030 Agenda, Paris Agreement and other intergovernmentally-agreed frameworks integrated in national and local development plans, measures to accelerate progress put in place, and budgets and progress assessed using data-driven solutions Output 4.1 Natural resources protected and managed to enhance sustainable productivity and livelihoods

Output 2.3 Responsive governance systems and local governance strengthened for socio economic opportunity, inclusive basic service delivery, community security, and peacebuilding

Output 1.1.1 Capacities developed across the whole of government to integrate the 2030 Agenda, the Paris Agreement and other international agreements in development plans and budgets, and to analyse progress towards the SDGs, using innovative and data-driven solutions Output 1.1.2 Marginalised groups, particularly the poor, women, people with disabilities and displaced are empowered to gain universal access to basic services and financial and non-financial assets to build productive capacities and benefit from sustainable livelihoods and jobs Output 1.2.1 Capacities at national and sub-national levels strengthened to promote inclusive local economic development and deliver basic services including HIV and related services Output 1.2.2 Enabling environment strengthened to expand public and private financing for the achievement of the SDGs Output 1.2.3 Institutions and systems enabled to address awareness, prevention and enforcement of anti-corruption measures to maximize availability of resources for poverty eradication Output 1.3.1 National capacities and evidence-based assessment and planning tools enable gender-responsive and risk-informed development investments, including for response to and recovery from crisis Output 1.4.1 Solutions scaled up for sustainable management of natural resources, including sustainable commodities and green and inclusive value chains Output 1.5.1 Solutions adopted to achieve universal access to clean, affordable and sustainable energy Output 1.6.1 Country-led measures accelerated to advance gender equality and women’s empowerment Output 1.6.2 Measures in place and implemented across sectors to prevent and respond to Sexual and Gender Based Violence (SGBV) Output 2.1.1 Low emission and climate resilient objectives addressed in national, sub-national and sectoral development plans and policies to promote economic diversification and green growth Output 2.1.2 Capacities developed for progressive expansion of inclusive social protection systems Output 2.2.1 Use of digital technologies and big data enabled for improved public services and other government functions Output 2.2.2 Constitution-making, electoral and parliamentary processes and institutions strengthened to promote inclusion, transparency and accountability Output 2.2.3 Capacities, functions and financing of rule of law and national human rights institutions and systems strengthened to expand access to justice and combat discrimination, with a focus on women and other marginalised groups Output 2.3.1 Data and risk-informed development policies, plans, systems and financing incorporate integrated and gender-responsive solutions to reduce disaster risks, enable climate change adaptation and mitigation, and prevent risk of conflict Output 2.4.1 Gender-responsive legal and regulatory frameworks, policies and institutions strengthened, and solutions adopted, to address conservation, sustainable use and equitable benefit sharing of natural resources, in line with international conventions and national legislation Output 2.5.1 Solutions developed, financed and applied at scale for energy efficiency and transformation to clean energy and zero-carbon development, for poverty eradication and structural transformation Output 2.6.1 Capacities strengthened to raise awareness on and undertake legal, policy and institutional reforms to fight structural barriers to women’s empowerment Output 3.1.1 Core government functions and inclusive basic services4 restored post-crisis for stabilisation, durable solutions to displacement and return to sustainable development pathways within the framework of national policies and priorities Output 3.2.1 National capacities strengthened for reintegration, reconciliation, peaceful management of conflict and prevention of violent extremism in response to national policies and priorities Output 3.2.2 National and local systems enabled and communities empowered to ensure the restoration of justice institutions, redress mechanisms and community security Output 3.3.1 Evidence-based assessment and planning tools and mechanisms applied to enable implementation of gender-sensitive and risk-informed prevention and preparedness to limit the impact of natural hazards and pandemics and promote peaceful, just and inclusive societies Output 3.3.2 Gender-responsive and risk-informed mechanisms supported to build consensus, improve social dialogue and promote peaceful, just and inclusive societies Output 3.4.1 Innovative nature-based and gender-responsive solutions developed, financed and applied for sustainable recovery Output 3.5.1 Energy access re-established for crisis-affected populations, with a focus on gender-sensitive, risk-informed and sustainable recovery Output 3.6.1 Energy access re-established for crisis-affected populations, with a focus on gender-sensitive, risk-informed and sustainable recovery Organisational Output 1.1 Evidence based performance analysis and decision making at all levels Organisational Output 1.2 Cross-cutting approaches fully integrated into UNDP programmes and projects Organisational Output 1.3 High quality audits and evaluations producing implementable solutions

Output 1.1.1 Capacities developed across the whole of government to integrate the 2030 Agenda, the Paris Agreement and other international agreements in development plans and budgets, and to analyse progress towards the SDGs, using innovative and data-driven solutions Output 1.1.2 Marginalised groups, particularly the poor, women, people with disabilities and displaced are empowered to gain universal access to basic services and financial and non-financial assets to build productive capacities and benefit from sustainable livelihoods and jobs Output 1.2.1 Capacities at national and sub-national levels strengthened to promote inclusive local economic development and deliver basic services including HIV and related services Output 1.2.2 Enabling environment strengthened to expand public and private financing for the achievement of the SDGs Output 1.2.3 Institutions and systems enabled to address awareness, prevention and enforcement of anti-corruption measures to maximize availability of resources for poverty eradication Output 1.3.1 National capacities and evidence-based assessment and planning tools enable gender-responsive and risk-informed development investments, including for response to and recovery from crisis Output 1.4.1 Solutions scaled up for sustainable management of natural resources, including sustainable commodities and green and inclusive value chains Output 1.5.1 Solutions adopted to achieve universal access to clean, affordable and sustainable energy Output 1.6.1 Country-led measures accelerated to advance gender equality and women’s empowerment Output 1.6.2 Measures in place and implemented across sectors to prevent and respond to Sexual and Gender Based Violence (SGBV) Output 2.1.1 Low emission and climate resilient objectives addressed in national, sub-national and sectoral development plans and policies to promote economic diversification and green growth Output 2.1.2 Capacities developed for progressive expansion of inclusive social protection systems Output 2.2.1 Use of digital technologies and big data enabled for improved public services and other government functions Output 2.2.2 Constitution-making, electoral and parliamentary processes and institutions strengthened to promote inclusion, transparency and accountability Output 2.2.3 Capacities, functions and financing of rule of law and national human rights institutions and systems strengthened to expand access to justice and combat discrimination, with a focus on women and other marginalised groups Output 2.3.1 Data and risk-informed development policies, plans, systems and financing incorporate integrated and gender-responsive solutions to reduce disaster risks, enable climate change adaptation and mitigation, and prevent risk of conflict Output 2.4.1 Gender-responsive legal and regulatory frameworks, policies and institutions strengthened, and solutions adopted, to address conservation, sustainable use and equitable benefit sharing of natural resources, in line with international conventions and national legislation Output 2.5.1 Solutions developed, financed and applied at scale for energy efficiency and transformation to clean energy and zero-carbon development, for poverty eradication and structural transformation Output 2.6.1 Capacities strengthened to raise awareness on and undertake legal, policy and institutional reforms to fight structural barriers to women’s empowerment Output 1.4 Equitable, resilient and sustainable systems for health and pandemic preparedness strengthened to address communicable and non-communicable diseases, including COVID-19, HIV, tuberculosis, malaria and mental health Output 2.3 Responsive governance systems and local governance strengthened for socio economic opportunity, inclusive basic service delivery, community security, and peacebuilding Output 3.1 Institutional systems to manage multi-dimensional risks and shocks strengthened at regional, national and sub-national levels Output 3.2 Capacities for conflict prevention and peacebuilding strengthened at regional, national and sub-national levels and across borders Output 3.3 Risk informed and gender-responsive recovery solutions, including stabilization efforts and mine action, implemented at regional, national and sub-national levels

Output 4.2 Public and private investment mechanisms mobilized for biodiversity, water, oceans, and?climate solutions

Climate models project that the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) may soon become ice-free in summer for a limited window of time, opening a seasonally navigable route that connects Asia to Europe by crossing over the North Pole. This Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) and its surrounding waters in the CAO have seen little activity and would be available for seasonal commercial and surface military activity, particularly from the surrounding exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of Canada, Denmark (through Greenland and the Faroe Islands), Norway, Russia, and the United States. In this report, the authors explore how global actors may leverage new maritime access in the CAO for economic, political, and military gain. Drawing on insights from climate models, literature, and expert interviews, they examine current and potential future maritime uses of the ocean and the TSR by Arctic states and other actors. They then present a scenario in four phases of how these activities could plausibly develop in the CAO over time. The authors find that the most plausible scenario for maritime use of the CAO in the next 25 years is one of limited activity, though numerous factors could lead to expanded commercial and military presence by global actors.

China’s increased military threats and intimidation activities against Taiwan and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have prompted Taiwan’s government and civil society to strengthen the country’s resilience. Although Taiwan has a rich history of volunteerism and ample experience with disaster response, the efforts to build the nation’s civilian resilience against a potential wartime scenario are still in their initial stages. In this report, the authors consider aspects of Taiwan’s civilian resilience preparedness efforts that are particularly pertinent to building resilience against potential acts of war, which could range from a military blockade to kinetic strikes and even invasion. The authors define civilian resilience as civilian society’s ability to anticipate, prepare for, mitigate, and survive an act of war and rebuild following the end of hostilities. They apply an analytical framework based on seven thematic resilience areas (psychological resilience and societal cohesion, health and welfare, critical infrastructure and vital services, continuity of government and governance, transportation and mobility, food and water, and external networks) to evaluate Taiwan’s civilian resilience, its strengths and vulnerabilities, and how Taiwan could improve its civilian resilience capabilities. Drawing on their review of open-source primary and secondary sources and more than 40 interviews with government officials, subject-matter experts, civic leaders, and others from Taiwan, the United States, and Europe, the authors identify key areas in which the United States and the international community could further assist Taiwan’s civilian resilience preparations.

The author of this report addresses the mismatch between the challenges that the U.S. Navy is likely to face in the international arena over the next decade and beyond and the Navy’s likely force structure. Over several decades, the Navy’s force structure has gotten smaller, although the overall capabilities of its ships and submarines have improved and expanded. In this report, the author considers potential force structure shortfalls and suggests possible adjustments that can be made to how the Navy approaches force structure development. The author recommends that particular emphasis be placed on platforms that are capable of being deployed in sufficient numbers to provide persistent presence before crises develop. The findings discussed in this report are based on research conducted from October 2023 to October 2024. Previously, the author spent several years researching the U.S. Navy and its interactions with potential adversaries, particularly the forces of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). In this report, the author applied this previous work to what is viewed as a significantly changed set of circumstances from those that drove the development of Navy force structure up to this point in history. This was an exploratory project intended as a roadmap for future study.

As artificial intelligence (AI) rapidly advances, many AI experts predict that the first state to develop artificial general intelligence (AGI) that can perform a wide range of tasks better than humans will gain huge advantages in military and economic power. If U.S. and Chinese leaders believe that losing the race to AGI would pose a dire threat to their nations, how will they respond if their strategic competitor appears poised to win it? Or, how will they respond if their state successfully develops AGI and then faces challenges to its newly achieved technological dominance? The author of this paper presents a typology of potential strategic responses, focusing on preventive actions that states might take to undermine an opponent's AI development efforts, and draws on the history of geopolitical power shifts and nuclear proliferation to identify key factors that are likely to affect whether national leaders will decide to launch preventive attacks against rival AI programs. Uncertainties about the potential characteristics and implications of AGI might make pressures for preventive action especially powerful but might also discourage leaders from taking great risks when the magnitude and proximity of the danger are unclear. This analysis suggests that strategists and decisionmakers should seriously consider how incentives for preventive action might make the period of transition before and after the emergence of AGI geopolitically fraught. The assessments presented in this paper can provide a starting point for making policy choices to manage the resulting risks of international instability.

Discussions in Washington about artificial intelligence increasingly turn to how the United States can win the AI race with China. One of President Donald Trump's first acts on returning to office was to sign an executive order declaring the need to "sustain and enhance America's global AI dominance." At the Paris AI Action Summit in February, Vice President JD Vance emphasized the administration's commitment to ensuring that "American AI technology continues to be the gold standard worldwide." And in May, David Sacks, Trump's AI and crypto czar, cited the need "to win the AI race" to justify exporting advanced AI chips to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Given the prospect that AI could transform the power and prosperity of nations in the decades to come, it is better to win the race than lose it. But determining who is ahead depends on what it means to win. A common definition is being the first to cross the threshold of artificial general intelligence, which in basic terms is an AI model that is as smart or smarter than the top human experts across a wide range of cognitive tasks. AGI could unlock extraordinary breakthroughs in science, technology, and economic productivity—and the first country to develop it could reap disproportionate benefits.

The authors of this report present a brief historical overview of the relationship between African countries and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) since its inception in the middle of the 20th century. In this overview, the authors cover economic, humanitarian, and political aspects; highlight trade and investment flows; and summarize Chinese medical and military aid to Africa. The authors also cover Chinese interests in Africa and African countries’ concerns about Chinese engagement on the continent. In addition, three country case studies are presented to highlight how Chinese engagement differs from country to country on the continent. The authors conclude with recommendations for policymakers and propose areas for further research. A decline in relations between the West and Africa at the end of the Cold War and the drop in Western approval because of undemocratic practices and human rights abuses in African countries have created an avenue for China to expand its relationships with African countries. While the West attached conditions to loans and assistance offered to African countries, China presented a no-strings-attached alternative, which only required African nations to respect China’s core sovereignty interests. China has also taken advantage of disinvestment by Western companies in Africa to increase its investments. Chinese economic engagement declined in the second half of the 2010s but is now enjoying a revitalization. This economic engagement has paved the way for greater political and security engagements with African countries.