Wars between states—particularly protracted, high-intensity conflicts (such as the Russia-Ukraine war), which involve the commitment of significant resources—have the capacity to reshape how states fight by providing both the opportunity and the pressure to use and adapt novel capabilities. In this report, the authors closely examine the tactical and operational levels of the fighting in Ukraine to make eight novel or notable observations about contemporary warfighting. These observations include insights about the use of uncrewed aerial and naval systems in combat, the transparent battlefield and the problem of persistent surveillance, the effectiveness of air defenses and electronic warfare against uncrewed systems, the need for low-cost expendable systems in a protracted conflict, the accessibility of commercial space-based assets for military purposes. The authors also use these observations to forecast the character of future wars by evaluating whether and how their observations might translate to two potential U.S.-involved conflict scenarios: a war in Eastern Europe between North Atlantic Treaty Organization members and Russia and a war in the Indo-Pacific between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. The authors conclude by highlighting the implications of their observations and providing recommendations for the Department of the Air Force, the Department of Defense, and U.S. government policymakers.

The U.S. defense strategy and posture have become insolvent. The tasks that the nation expects its military forces and other elements of national power to do internationally exceed the means that are available to accomplish those tasks. Sustained, coordinated efforts by the United States and its allies are necessary to deter and defeat modern threats, including Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine and reconstituted forces and China's economic takeoff and concomitant military modernization. This report offers ideas on how to address shortcomings in defense preparations.